Do Hitters Pull Fly Outs?

Q: Why do batters in Season Ticket Baseball hit so many fly outs to the opposite field? Shouldn't they be pulling the ball?

A: We know that most home runs are pulled by the batter. Right-handed hitters hit most of their homers to left field and lefties hit most of their homers to right. This table of home runs in the 2023 season shows hitters pulling more than 70% of their home runs:

​Based on this fact, you would think that most fly outs are also pulled. Home runs are just a subset of fly balls. So, we would expect that batters that pull their home runs would tend to pull all their fly balls. This is what I always assumed before I started looking at the data. Here's a breakdown of fly outs and popouts in 1986 (not including bunts):

This surprised me when I first discovered it, but it makes sense when you think about it. If you have a baseball and bat, put the ball on a chair or table and slowly swing the bat at the ball as if you were going to hit it squarely back at the pitcher.

Swing again, but this time move the bat down an inch. You can see that hitting under the ball will hit it into the air. You will also see that the bat head is below your hands, causing the ball to fly away from you (to the opposite field) as it comes off the bat.

You can also do the same thing for ground balls. Position your bat to hit the top of the ball and it will be driven down into the ground AND pulled.

There are exceptions to these examples, like a pitch above your hands. But most fly balls are hit on strikes and that means they go to the opposite field more often than they are pulled. A great example of this is the fact that left-handed hitter Joey Votto went the first 6,828 plate appearances of his career without ever popping up to first base. When he gets under a pitch, he tends to pop up to the opposite field (i.e. third base or shortstop) — it's very unlikely for him to fly out to the first baseman.