What's Up With the Low Steal Ratings?

I just got the following question about the new 2023 season cards:

Q: I’m curious why the steal ratings are so low. Lots of 0s and 1s for guys with good steal numbers.

A: The 'Speed' and 'Steal' ratings are calculated to accurately reproduce the player's SB and CS numbers using the game's Auto Manager rules. Because Speed determines a player's success rate when stealing, it is also the primary factor in whether a player tries to establish a lead.

Based on the catcher Arm ratings in the 2023 card set, these are the frequencies (at left) with which a player will try to establish a lead, based only on their Speed rating.

These rates are for players with a Steal rating of zero. So, what does the Steal rating do? It increases the rate at which a player attempts to steal, primarily by increasing the number of attempts in situations where the odds of success aren't great.

For 1923, when the stolen base success rate was only 55%, about half the players have a Steal rating of 3 or more. But teams have become much more selective about stealing in the 21st century, meaning that a player's Speed rating is often enough to generate all of their steal attempts. This is especially true in 2023, when the MLB rule changes have further increased the average success rate.

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